When the Cincinnati Reds selected Drew Stubbs during the first round (eighth overall) of the 2006 amateur entry draft, they knew what kind of player they had just landed. During Stubbs' three years ('04-'06) as a Texas Longhorn, he posted some pretty serious numbers. His Freshman year, Stubbs played in 71 games for the Longhorns and hit a respectable .301 in 266 at-bats. Driving in 47 runs along with 26 stolen bases, scoring 51 times, and hitting sixteen doubles, Stubbs was on his way to becoming the next Longhorn star.
Through '05 and '06, Stubbs increased his numbers significantly. At twenty years of age during his sophomore season at Texas, Stubbs raised his average to .311 while driving in 46 runs. In 72 games, Stubbs increased his doubles (20), stolen bases (32), walks (32), and homerun (11) totals from his previous season. Stubbs was developing very nicely.
In Drew Stubbs' final season as a Texas Longhorn, he was named co-MVP of the squad and was also tagged as the Big 12 co-Player of the Year. The three-time All-American had a fantastic Junior season batting .342 in 62 games. Stubbs scored 65 runs, hit 12 homers, and stole 26 bases in 2006 for the Longhorns. While playing superb defense, Stubbs' showcased his five-tool talent and secured a spot among baseball's top prospects.
Now that we've praised Drew Stubbs' baseball ability and discussed the reasoning behind his first-round selection, we will digress. Not to downgrade or minimize Drew Stubbs' capability, or to disrespect the Reds organization, but to simply point out one thing.... strikeouts.
Here's where it gets interesting. During Stubbs freshman season at Texas, he struck out 28% of the time, but brought it down to 25% as a sophomore and junior. During '04-'06 while Stubbs was playing at Texas, former Longhorn quarterback Adam Dunn (hated by many Reds fans for his K's) led the NL in strikeouts (195, 168, 194) while playing for Cincinnati.
During Dunn's three year strikeout fest, he struck out 33% of the time. Obviously Dunn's strikeout total was repulsive (557) during '04-'06, but he made up for it with his offensive production. Posting a .249 average throughout the three years Dunn hit 126 homers, 93 doubles, scored 311 runs, drove in 295 runs, and walked 334 times all while missing only five games. Strikeouts are acceptable when a player composes such statistics.
After leaving the Big 12, Drew Stubbs became substantially prone to striking out. Playing 56 games for the Billings Mustangs in 2006, Stubbs whiffed 64 times in 210 at-bats (30%) while posting a .252 average. His first full season in the Reds organization was with the Dayton Dragons during 2007. Stubbs struck out 29% of the time and scored 93 runs in '07, but drove in a measly 43 runs as his average modestly increased (.270).
Stubbs climbed the minor league ladder during 2008, and seemed to be developing attractively, as he cut down his strikeouts. In 131 games with Sarasota, Chattanooga, and Louisville Stubbs batted .290 and struck out only 26% of the time but was still struggling offensively. He drove in 57 runs and homered only seven times. Stubbs was consistently rabid when he was on base scoring 75 times and stealing 33 bags (led Reds minor leagues), but it was not often enough with his .373 OBP.
Before making his major league debut on August 19, 2009, Stubbs spent most of the year in Louisville. He played 107 games for the Bats in '09, hit .268, homered three times, and drove in 39 runs as he represented the Reds in the 2009 All-Star Futures Game. Stubbs cut down his strikeout percentage to .250 and was considered the Reds' third best prospect behind Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier. After being called up to the big leagues, Stubbs showed reasonable promise in only 42 games. He struck out 27% of the time but scored 27 runs, hit eight homeruns, and drove in seventeen runs finishing the season with the Reds.
The year is 2010. Drew Stubbs made the Opening Day roster for the Reds. Hitting first and seventh in the Reds' lineup, Stubbs currently has a .231 average, 15 stolen bases, 31 RBI, 36 runs scored, seven doubles, and seven homeruns in 69 games. His .306 OBP has kept his deadly speed off the base paths.
Stubbs' 74 strikeouts currently tie him for seventh in the NL. Justin Upton, Rickie Weeks, David Wright, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Howard, and Dan Uggla are impressive players who also share the top ten strikeout list with Stubbs, but they all set them selves apart from him with their offense.
All ten have AT LEAST ten homers, ten doubles, 38 RBI, and 38 runs scored except Stubbs. He has the second worse average among them with the third worse being .254 (Uggla). Remember Adam Dunn's 33% strikeout rate during 2004-'06? Drew Stubbs' is 31% so far in 2010. Strikeouts are acceptable when a player produces other quality statistics. At 25 years old, Drew Stubbs is not compensating.
Drew, we like you. We really do. We're aware that your development in the minor leagues peaked and it's time for the majors, but we need more from you. Your speed and agility in the outfield are priceless along with your cannon of an arm. When you reach, you are arguably the best base runner on the team, but it needs to happen more frequently.
Shorten your swing. Level it out. Get on base.
Stop striking out!
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